Multinational security cooperation is increasing.
Geopolitical tensions remain high.
All of those developments are real and important.
But they do not establish that 13 countries have collectively launched an attack.
That is the crucial distinction readers should remember.
Could the situation become more dangerous?
Yes.
International security conditions can change quickly.
A new attack, a military accident, a political decision or a breakdown in diplomacy could dramatically alter the situation.
But predicting that a particular alliance will launch a war requires evidence—not speculation.
The fact that countries are preparing for possible conflict does not prove that they intend to start one.
In many cases, the entire purpose of military preparedness is to convince an adversary that an attack would be too costly.
That is the logic behind deterrence.
Whether deterrence succeeds is another question.
The bigger picture
The world is experiencing a period of unusually intense geopolitical uncertainty.
The war in Ukraine has transformed European security thinking. Conflict and instability in the Middle East continue to threaten important trade routes. Major powers are competing for influence, and governments are reassessing their military capabilities.
